TWiA explores the intersection of policy and politics, and most importantly, how that intersection affects real people. It's dedicated to the proposition that good government is possible, it matters, and taxpayers deserve nothing less. Its starting point is that facts are facts, science is real, data are real, and we can and must learn from history. Below you'll find facts and opinions that derive from fact, informed by a close and careful study of these issues that began in 1968 and has never stopped. Note, when we discuss generic "Democrats" and "Republicans" or "conservatives" and "liberals," etc., we're generally talking about elected officials, unless otherwise noted. Also, bonus bear news and other awesomeness. We appreciate comments and arguments, so please chime in, and if you like it, spread the word.
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This Week in SOTU
President Obama delivered his last State of the Union address on Tuesday, and what may be his last major speech on a national stage until his speech at this year's Democratic Convention, which will be his swan song. We admit that it makes us sad, because this country has had few orators who can match his skill as a speaker or as a writer, and none of the candidates running to succeed him come close. The full video is here and a transcript--with annotations--is here (along with an annotated transcript of Gov. Nikki Haley's (R/SC) solid GOP response speech, of which the video is here. What both speeches had in common was a plea for the nation to reject the politics of anger and divisiveness represented by the rise of Donald Trump--a fact that upset far-right critics of Haley's speech. Less extremist Republicans think the speech made her an even stronger contender than she already was for a vice-presidential nomination. It's certain that she'll be on any candidate's shortlist (except maybe Trump's, unless he's smart enough to realize that for the general election, he'll have to soften his message), although we're still thinking Gov. John Kasich (R/OH) is a likelier choice. Republicans will take South Carolina regardless, but they can't win without Ohio, and Kasich goes a long way toward delivering it.
The speech is worth reading or watching--especially for the last section, in which he appealed to what Abraham Lincoln called "the better angels of our nature."
So, my fellow Americans, whatever you may believe, whether you prefer one party or no party, whether you supported my agenda or fought as hard as you could against it -- our collective futures depends on your willingness to uphold your duties as a citizen. To vote. To speak out. To stand up for others, especially the weak, especially the vulnerable, knowing that each of us is only here because somebody, somewhere, stood up for us. We need every American to stay active in our public life -- and not just during election time -- so that our public life reflects the goodness and the decency that I see in the American people every single day.
It is not easy. Our brand of democracy is hard. But I can promise that a little over a year from now, when I no longer hold this office, I will be right there with you as a citizen, inspired by those voices of fairness and vision, of grit and good humor and kindness that helped America travel so far. Voices that help us see ourselves not, first and foremost, as black or white, or Asian or Latino, not as gay or straight, immigrant or native born, not as Democrat or Republican, but as Americans first, bound by a common creed. Voices Dr. King believed would have the final word -- voices of unarmed truth and unconditional love.
And they’re out there, those voices. They don’t get a lot of attention; they don't seek a lot of fanfare; but they’re busy doing the work this country needs doing. I see them everywhere I travel in this incredible country of ours. I see you, the American people. And in your daily acts of citizenship, I see our future unfolding. .
I see it in the worker on the assembly line who clocked extra shifts to keep his company open, and the boss who pays him higher wages instead of laying him off.
I see it in the Dreamer who stays up late at night to finish her science project, and the teacher who comes in early, and maybe with some extra supplies that she bought because she knows that that young girl might someday cure a disease.
I see it in the American who served his time, and bad mistakes as a child but now is dreaming of starting over -- and I see it in the business owner who gives him that second chance. The protester determined to prove that justice matters -- and the young cop walking the beat, treating everybody with respect, doing the brave, quiet work of keeping us safe.
I see it in the soldier who gives almost everything to save his brothers, the nurse who tends to him till he can run a marathon, the community that lines up to cheer him on.
It’s the son who finds the courage to come out as who he is, and the father whose love for that son overrides everything he’s been taught.
I see it in the elderly woman who will wait in line to cast her vote as long as she has to; the new citizen who casts his vote for the first time; the volunteers at the polls who believe every vote should count -- because each of them in different ways know how much that precious right is worth.
That's the America I know. That’s the country we love. Clear-eyed. Big-hearted. Undaunted by challenge. Optimistic that unarmed truth and unconditional love will have the final word. That’s what makes me so hopeful about our future. I believe in change because I believe in you, the American people.
And that’s why I stand here confident as I have ever been that the State of our Union is strong.
Thank you, God bless you. God bless the United States of America.
Below the fold: Flint, Guns, Debates, Bowie, and Bears.
This Week in Flint
We haven't covered the horrendous crisis in Flint, MI, but MSNBC's The Rachel Maddow Show has been on it nonstop and is doing really excellent journalism around it. Here's their recap:
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Also this week, Snyder called in the National Guard, albeit in a limited way--about 30 Guard members "are expected" to be in place by Friday to help deliver bottled water and filters to a city of almost 100,000 people. In the More Bad News category, there's also been an outbreak of Legionnaire's Disease. Officials can't say for sure whether it's related to the poisoned water supply, but it's a distinct possibility. Snyder claims there have only been 43 confirmed cases of elevated lead levels, but the pediatrician who first brought the problem to national attention--despite attempts by the Snyder administration to discredit her--says that figure is bogus. Those cases were all measured after the story broke in September, and therefore after people in Flint started taking precautions. But for almost two years before that, everybody in Flint who drank, cooked with, or bathed in tap water was exposed to dangerously high levels of lead.
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In one more turn of the proverbial screw, Flint's residents are still being billed for the poisonous water--officially considered "hazardous waste," in some cases--being delivered to their homes.
Should you feel inclined to help Flint's beleaguered residents, TRMS has pulled together this information on nonprofits in Flint working to make a difference.
This Week in Gun Safety
Max Ehrenfreund at the Washington Post thinks President Obama was wrong to dismiss the idea, at last week's CNN "Guns in America" town hall, that he's planning to take away Americans' guns as a conspiracy theory, because so many people believe it's true. And people, he argues, believe in conspiracy theories when they feel powerless. Add to that the idea that guns confer power, and the symbolism becomes more potent. None of which is to say that it isn't a conspiracy theory, because it plainly is. He just doesn't think the president should call it one in public.
Astronaut Mark Kelly (husband to Gabby Giffords*) put it in perspective at that event when he asked the president this question:
Thank you for being here, Mr. President. As you know, Gabby and I are both gun owners, we take gun ownership very seriously. And, you know, really think about the voices of responsible gun owners in this debate.
But, I want to follow up to something Father Pfleger said, and you answer to his question. And, it's about expanded background checks. Often what you hear in the debate of expanding background checks to more gun sales, and, as you know, Gabby and I are 100% behind the concept of somebody getting a background check before buying a gun.
But, when we testified in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee, we heard not only from the gun lobby, but from United States Senators that expanding background checks will, not may, will lead to a registry, which will lead to confiscation, which will lead to a tyrannical government.
So, I would like you to explain with 350 million guns in 65 million places, households, from Key West, to Alaska, 350 million objects in 65 million places, if the Federal government wanted to confiscate those objects, how would they do that?
Looked at that way, the impossibility of confiscation becomes clear. Add in that Republicans control both houses of Congress and the vast majority of statehouses--and Obama has just over a year left in office--and it's even more stark. Finally, since the Supreme Court has already ruled on the issue. there's no chance that confiscation is on the way. Zero. It would be helpful if people would understand that, so we can move on to more productive discussions of how to reduce gun violence.
Those viewing on TV didn't get to see this moment, because it happened during a commercial break, when President Obama greeted Gabby.
*Kelly and Giffords endorsed Hillary Clinton for president this week.
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The NRA wants to take credit for the creation of the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS). The pro-gun death organization's extremely pro-gun death executive vice president, the shameless Wayne LaPierre, said, “The best kept secret is that the national instant check system wouldn’t exist at all if it weren’t for the NRA.”
Which is, not surprisingly, a big fat lie. The NRA wanted to kill the Brady Bill, so it promoted multiple amendments designed to do just that. Eventually, the bill passed despite its opposition, and the NRA tried to sue it out of existence. The Trace reports: "Meanwhile, background checks enjoy clear popularity in opinion surveys. A FiveThirtyEight analysis notes that a December Quinnipiac University poll, one of dozens to arrive at similar results, found that the policy is supported by at least 84 percent of respondents in every demographic, including gun owners, men, rural residents, and Republicans. Other polls have found that strong support for background checks extends directly to members of the NRA, which has incentive to promote itself as a gun safety organization. Perhaps that accounts for why LaPierre wants the NRA to get credit for the creation of the background check system, even as his group has fought against its expansion."
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Between 2009 and 2014, 70,000 guns used in crimes in Mexico were traced back to gun dealers in the US (predominantly in California, Arizona, and Texas). Most guns in the hands of Mexican drug cartels originate in the US and are bought legally, then shipped south across the border. According to the Washington Post, "The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms has data on exactly which of these retailers are disproportionately likely to sell guns that end up in the hands of cartels. But neither you nor I nor researchers nor state and local governments are allowed to see that data thanks to Congress. In 2005, they passed a bill prohibiting ATF from sharing this data with the public, government agencies, and even with researchers who could help figure out how to try to stanch the flow of illegal guns."
This Week in the Constitution
Steve Benen at Maddowblog addressed this week an issue we tackled early last week: Marco Rubio's yen for a constitutional convention. There is an update--Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has called for one, too, only he wants it to re-litigate a question solved by the Civil War. Benen goes into more detail than we did about the process of convening a constitutional convention--and describes the inherent dangers therein--so if you're interested in the topic, you might want to give his piece a read. As for Rubio's specific issues, Benen reaches the same conclusions we did:
As opposed to Tuesday's SOTU address, the overwhelming mood here was of a nation in the depths of despair--one that can only be rescued by electing one of the people proclaiming how doomed we are. Right from the start, Rubio came off like a fast-talking TV pitchman, spewing old, nonsensical talking points at the speed of sound:
RUBIO: But the real -- but I think we have to get back to what this election has to be about. OK? Listen, we -- this is the greatest country in the history of mankind. But in 2008, we elected a president that didn't want to fix America. He wants to change America. We elected a president that doesn't believe in the Constitution. He undermines it. We elected a president that is weakening America on the global stage. We elected a president that doesn't believe in the free enterprise system.
This election has to be about reversing all of that damage. That's why I'm running for office because when I become president of the United States, on my first day in office we are going to repeal every single one of his unconstitutional executive orders. When I'm president of the United States we are getting rid of Obamacare and we are rebuilding our military. And when I'm president, we're not just going to have a president that gives a State of the Union and says America is the greatest country in the world. When I'm president, we're going to have a president that acts like it.
Later, he called Obamacare "a certified job-killer." Of course, it isn't, but none of those other things are true, either. The free enterprise system is doing just fine under President Obama. The Constitution is not under attack, and executive orders are not unconstitutional. We are more respected around the world than we were during the previous administration. America overall is in far better shape than it was on January 19, 2009.
Falsehoods flowed freely throughout the evening, as expected, but mile-a-minute-mouth Rubio machine-gunned out more of them than most. The New York Times fact-checked some of the most egregious ones from all the candidates.
Chris Christie and Ted Cruz both called President Obama a child. We've been trying to remember presidential candidates ever saying that about a white president, but we can't. Christie also said, "Come November, we're throwing your rear end out of the White House," which is not only as disrespectful as we've ever seen a presidential candidate, but doesn't even make sense--Obama's in the White House until the morning of January 20, 2017, when his term ends. Even in the incredibly unlikely event that he won, Christie would have no bearing on that. Talking tough with absolutely no way to back up your words isn't the same thing as being tough.
Ben Carson is increasingly out of his element. You have to be pretty smart to be a brain surgeon, or so we believe, but Carson came across like someone who had found himself on the stage while sleepwalking and had no clue what he was doing there. His answers ranged from simplistic to incomprehensible, as was the case with his first question, about how we attack ISIS:
CARSON: Well, I'm very happy to get a question this early on. I was going to ask you to wake me up when that time came. [TWiA NOTE: This was in the first round of questions, so he hadn't been skipped. But he had practiced that line, and he was by God going to deliver it.]
You know, I find it really quite fascinating some of the president's proclamations. The fact of the matter is he doesn't realize that we now live in the 21st century, and that war is very different than it used to be before. Not armies massively marching on each other and air forces, but now we have dirty bombs and we have cyber attacks and we have people who will be attacking our electrical grid. And, you know, we have a whole variety of things that they can do and they can do these things simultaneously. And we have enemies who are obtaining nuclear weapons that they can explode in our exoatmosphere and destroy our electric grid.
I mean, just think about a scenario like that. They explode the bomb, we have an electromagnetic pulse. They hit us with a cyberattack simultaneously and dirty bombs. Can you imagine the chaos that would ensue at that point? He needs to recognize that those kinds of things are in fact an existential threat to us.
But here's the real key. We have the world's best military, even though he's done everything he can to diminish it. And the fact of the matter is if we give them a mission and we don't tie their hands behind their back, they can get it accomplished.
To which the only rational response is, "WTF?"
Cruz and Trump went after each other, with both scoring points on some occasions and losing on others--but those points were scored on topics like Cruz's eligibility for the presidency and "New York values"--hardly issues that matter in the greater scheme of running the country. Columnist Frank Bruni writes, "The only sane response was sorrow—that this is a presidential election in the greatest democracy on earth, and that blowhards like Trump and Cruz are, for now, setting the pace and the terms in one of our two major political parties."
As usual, the only people who really made any sense at all were Jeb! Bush and John Kasich, neither of whom seems likely to make it all the way through to the convention. Instead, the race is shaping up more and more as an ugly battle between Trump and Cruz, with an ever-more-desperate Rubio and Christie bringing up the rear, shouting their lies at top volume.
"I want to use that same up here, whatever it may be to make America rich again and to make America great again." (Yes, that's an actual debate quote. Trump wants to use his hair, or whatever it may be, to make America great again.) Photo by Chris Keane/Reuters
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We should pay particularly close attention to the Republican budget proposals from the presidential candidates in 2016. If a Republican is elected president, the party will almost surely have maintained control of Congress and, therefore, control the federal budget.
Since Mr. Rubio offers a detailed plan on taxes and spending — and since he is widely considered an “establishment” candidate — voters might carefully consider what his budget blueprint offers. Here’s the short version: It draws on fantasy math that would wreck America’s fiscal house.
On the tax side, Mr. Rubio slashes rates on personal and corporate income, and gives bigger breaks to wealthier Americans.
It doesn’t end there. Other candidates would reduce rates on capital gains and dividends, but Mr. Rubio would eliminate those taxes. He almost went out of his way to concoct a policy that would benefit the richest Americans: 79 percent of current revenue from these two taxes comes from the top 1 percent of earners, and less than 10 percent from the bottom 95 percent.
He would also end the estate tax. Republicans invariably call this the “death tax,” insinuating that it hits everyone unfortunate enough to die. Not even close: Only about 5,400 estates in America owe federal estate tax for 2015. But getting rid of it would add about $300 billion to the deficit over 10 years.
Mr. Rubio’s policies would cause a tidal wave of red ink. A repeal of the capital gains tax would cost roughly $1 trillion over 10 years While there as yet is no estimate for the cost of dividend tax repeal, my best professional guess is a minimum of $250 billion.
His entire tax package would increase the deficit by at least $4 trillion. But even Ramesh Ponnuru, a right-leaning columnist who approves of the plan, admits its price tag could be as high as $6 trillion (the plan incorporates highly optimistic economic assumptions).
At the same time, Mr. Rubio piles on military spending. According to a Cato Institute analyst, his all-you-can-eat Pentagon budget could cost at least an extra $1 trillion over a decade. Based on my 28-year congressional career analyzing military budgets, I’d say that’s an underestimate. Among the many programs he wants, an additional carrier battle group, extra ground combat personnel (whose pay and benefits will be with us for decades), and missile defense could easily cost more than $1 trillion. For perspective, just one item, nuclear modernization, could alone cost $1 trillion.
And that's just Rubio. Lofgren pauses to explain the origins of the "magic asterisk: "When I began work on Capitol Hill in 1983, President Ronald Reagan adopted policies devised by his young budget director, David Stockman, who came up with a “magic asterisk” in his documents to show that future deficits could be imagined out of existence by additional unspecified budget reductions. This deception allowed the administration to push through steep tax cuts and vast military increases. Over President Reagan’s two terms, gross federal debt nearly tripled. Republicans have been largely budgeting by magic asterisk ever since."
Then he summarizes some of the other plans out there, before reaching his grim conclusion:
Mr. Rubio’s current fiscal plan is only in the middle range among the 2016 Republican contenders’ budget-busting schemes: Jeb Bush’s would add about $3.7 trillion to the deficit; Donald J. Trump’s, an eye-watering $12 trillion. Yet they all rail against what they call Mr. Obama’s fiscal irresponsibility.
Their consistently sorry fiscal record and proposals raise the question: Why hasn’t the public caught on?
Republicans have been remarkably successful in delinking taxes from fiscal policy, “framing” taxes as a distasteful personal burden unconnected to widely desired public goods like roads, food-safety inspections or clean water. Instead, they claim that reducing taxes will spur so much investment the cuts will “pay for themselves.” Three decades of evidence have shown this claim to be false, but the candidates display ferocious discipline in pretending that tax cuts don’t harm the budget.
The party also benefits from public ignorance of the federal budget. When voters think foreign aid is the largest item in the budget (it is less than 1 percent), or that we can reach fiscal balance by cutting waste, fraud and abuse, they are deluding themselves.
Working for Republicans, I learned the hard way that expecting the party to restrain the deficit, let alone balance the budget, is, in Samuel Johnson’s words, “the triumph of hope over experience.”
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Meanwhile, national security expert Michael O'Hanlon writes for Brookings that President Obama has basically the right balance of policies regarding Asia. "All that said, we are on the right track with the rebalance, TPP, and strong presidential leadership in regard to the Asia region. Obama has created a solid legacy and, beyond the ratification of TPP, the most important thing is that his successor sustain its essence." But he, too, admits that we haven't really addressed the North Korea issue.
This Week in Land
The gunmen holding birds hostage in Oregon don't quite understand what they're doing there. As the New York Times reports, "Ammon Bundy, the crew’s leader and the scion of a Nevada ranching family steeped in disputes with the federal government, said he and his sympathizers had gone to Oregon to give the refuge back to local ranchers."
Giving something "back" implies that the recipient once had it. The Malheur National Wildlife Refuge has been federal land--your land and my land, as the song goes--for longer than Oregon has been a state. Giving it "back" to the ranchers isn't a thing. Giving it to the ranchers could conceivably be done, but it would mean taking something we all own and making it private property--taking a piece of our shared national heritage and handing it to someone for personal profit. If we're going to give it back to anyone, it would have to be the local Paiutes, and they've already told the gunmen to get off. Apparently Bundy and his thugs don't care what the actual original occupants say.
In other parts of the country, ranchers have learned to work with the government, not against it (we mentioned the Malpai Borderlands Group before; it's not the only example). Key to that partnership is mutual respect. Bundy and his followers obviously don't have that respect for the federal government, and haven't earned it from any of us. They should surrender, face criminal charges, and be punished appropriately.
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Nothing to worry about here. The Oregon Nutjob Militia has brought in a sovereign citizen "judge"--who isn't, in fact, a judge, but a computer technician from Colorado--to prepare to put local Harney County, OR officials on "trial." What could go wrong?
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Here's what's really hurting ranchers--not the federal government's efforts to protect the ecological soundness of public land, but the consolidation of power within the industry in the hands of a very few megacorporations. Four companies control almost 90% of the meat-slaughtering and packing in the US, and a handful of big retailers control the distribution channels. As they push prices down, it's the ranchers who get squeezed.
This Week in Dying
Kevin Drum has long been one of our favorite political writers. He's thoughtful and has a good big-picture view on the issues facing the country. This month in Mother Jones, he writes about the right to die, in a story that's personal, informative, and deeply moving. We wish him all the best.
This Week in Liberalism
Is America becoming more liberal? Peter Beinart at The Atlantic thinks so, and argues his case in this longish read. President Obama has been just as transformative a president in a leftward direction as president Reagan was in a rightward one a generation ago.
This Week in Mexico
Why doesn't the US have an ambassador to our neighbor to the south? Because in a fit of pique over President Obama's Cuba policy, Sen. Marco Rubio (R/FL) has put a hold on a highly qualified, uncontroversial nominee for that job.
This Week in Planet Earth is Blue
There are plenty of influential musicians in any generation, since music captures a vast swath of culture and many of us relate to it on such personal, powerful terms. But there's influential and there's influential, and on the italicized list there are just a few true groundbreaking artists, without whose presence the whole of popular music would look and sound different. Off the top of our head (and working from the 60s onward--obviously Sinatra and Presley were enormously formative, as were others of their generations), we'd list Brian Wilson, Lennon & McCartney, Bob Dylan, maybe Mick Jagger and Paul Simon. Heavy metal music wouldn't exist without Led Zeppelin. Soul, R&B, and hip-hop wouldn't be what they are without James Brown, Aretha Franklin, and Marvin Gaye. But no such list would be complete without David Bowie. In the soundtrack of the lives of several generations, Bowie's music is always there, and his influence on others is profound. He'll be missed, and his music won't soon be forgotten.
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The Germans say Bowie helped bring down the Berlin Wall. Maybe he did, at that. This is the performance they're talking about (and incidentally, TWiA's favorite Bowie song).
This Week in Bears
It's been a hard week all around. Let's lighten it up with some adorable bear video.
This baby polar bear is in Toronto, but we'll stretch the definition of "America" to include that for the moment.
And this older bear takes delight in a Christmas tree.
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